The Day After: Debate Analysis in the Sober Light of Day

Last night, expectations were high for this first debate. The campaign is often a constant barrage of soundbites and political ads, shading issues with hearsay and rumor, constantly barreling towards the finish line in November without concern for the praciticality of positions. Debates, on the other hand, and a bit of an anomaly. The two candidates are placed face to face, unable to just lob accusations or assaults without immediate rebuttal. A single journalist-moderator is given full control of the direction of the debate, choosing topics and questions at his on discretion. In the end, a roomful of commentators, spinmeisters, and pundits do their best to interpret the results of the debate, and the following days and weeks determine whether or not the public at large agrees. The idea of a winner or loser in the debate is, frankly, ridiculous considering that each person is swayed in different ways by different things.

So, any debate is a fascinating prospect, and one that could potential change the entire direction of the campaign. One slip up on live television becomes the media theme for the rest of the campaign. Too long a pause is replayed as a demonstratoin of your ignorance. A repeated phrase such as “lock box” becomes a verbal albatross that makes a serious proposal sound ridiculous.

This particular debate raised the stakes considerably higher. At first meant to be a debate on foreign affairs, it was Obama’s best chance to unseat McCain from his reputation as the better Commander-in-Chief, and to demonstrate that his short tenure in Washington does not preclude his ability to comprehend and tackle the big issues of State. Then, the immediate concerns of our economy cried out for a platform where these candidates could make clear to the American people how their needs could be met and problems solved. On top of all of that, McCain’s failed gambit to postpone or cancel the debate in his feeble attempt to appear “above” politics demonstrated his fear of the questions he might face, and piqued public and media interest in how the debate would proceed.

Yesterday, in the immediate aftermath of the debate, I thought it was perfectly clear that Barack Obama had come out on top. He was clear, concise, congenial, and above all, demonstrated a deep comprehension of the issues facing America both domestically and abroad, with many proposals to meet the needs of the future. McCain, on the other hand, was condescending, dismissive, and easily flustered. While Obama painted a picture of how we would turn things around, McCain seemed more apt to tell us where we’ve been, and who’s to blame for where we are, and gave vague promises of how he would act in the future.

Policy, however, is not what the debates are about. We can hear and read about their policies everyday, and they have been previously vetted so greatly that we are unlikely to hear anything new or drastically dramatic. Instead, the debates are an opportunity to demonstrate the ability to act “Presidential,” a rather undefinable quality that, like pornography, we know it when we see it. Barack Obama began the debate by graciously shaking McCain’s hand and wishing him luck, thanking Jim Lehrer and the school for hosting them, and then spoke directly to the American people by looking right into the camera. McCain, conversely, avoided looking directly at or speaking to Obama, began with a sullen tone by wishing Ted Kennedy well, and then awkwardly shifted at his podium while addressing his opening remarks to Jim Lehrer off-camera.

While his opponent spoke, Obama appeared engaged, listening intently, and remained calm even when falsehoods were stated about his positions. When he did interupt, he did so politely, and allowed the moderator the opportunity to take control. John McCain refused to look at Barack while he was speaking, and spent most of the time smirking and laughing with incredulity, or mumbling off-camera. His frustration would boil over with squiting grimaces and gesticulating with his arms in anger like a petulant child or a curmudgeonly old man.

On the issues, Barack Obama suggested investments in alternative energy, education, and health care, while John McCain suggested a budget freeze except for Defense, and cutting programs that amounted to a paltry 20-30 millions dollars, while also increasing our Defense expenditures and increasing our debt by cutting revenue. He hit all of the Republican buzz words; called Obama the most liberal member of the Senate, repeated the name “Reagan,” and talked of “supporting the troops.” While Obama spoke knowledgably about diplomatic solutions to dealing with America’s enemies and bolstering our allies, McCain stumbled to pronounce the name of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, called President Zardari of Pakistan “Kadari” while calling his country a “failed state,” and called the volatile Prime Minister Vladimir Putin akin to the KGB which - true or not - is the sort of inflamatory statement that could make it difficult to deal with this former superpower over former Eastern Bloc nations joining NATO.

While, like I predicted, most perceptions of the debate’s outcome fell along party lines, and the pundits were overly kind to McCain, the biggest surprise is that undecideds and moderates had their opinion of Obama greatly improved. In nearly all the polls, undecideds declared Obama the winner and better prepared to handle economic issues, and in most of these polls, he also did better than McCain on foreign affairs issues. According to one CBS poll, he went from being 9 points down compared to McCain on the questions of whether he was “prepared to be President,” to being 21 points ahead of McCain. On understanding the needs of the American people, his lead jumped from 18 points ahead to 56 points ahead. If the other debates go like this, including the VP debate, his lead on McCain should only increase, and considering that the nielsen ratings last night for this debate were highest in the midwest, many swing states that just two weeks ago were considered no longer in play, could once again lean towards Obama, marking a dramatic shift in the predictable nature of our electoral map.